A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
